So says Warren Buffett who, according to CNBC, has for almost six years been close to 100% out of equities (except for his Berkshire Hathaway investments.   In his Op Ed piece in the NY Times today, which is a must read, Buffett says:

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.

He goes on to say that bad news is a good thing for an investor as it provides opportunities to buy into the future at marked-down prices.  And that taps into the long term where things will be positive. In a succinctly put lessson on long-term investing, he says that people who are in cash are actually holding a depreciating asset as inflation will increase.  While he acknowledges that he does not know what the equity markets will do in the short term, in triue long term investor mode he says:

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MarketingProfs Get to the Point: Invest 60 seconds in your SMALL BUSINESS newsletter refers to Seth Godin’s post “Breakage” to discuss “The Price-Hike Gamble”. The post discusses the how small successive increases lead to a breaking point at which you the customer bolts. As Seth points out:

My car insurance bill has been steadily rising, year after year, despite the fact that I have a clean record. The logic, I’m sure, was, “well, let’s raise it a little and see who quits…”

If revenue increases enough to make up for the few who quit, you come out ahead. So, quarter after quarter, year after year, repeat the same process. Raise it a little, check to see if revenue rises in aggregate, and repeat.

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I understand how some of those caught up in the implosion must feel having been through the meltdown of Bankers Trust.  I remember how hard it was because the bank was such a big part of my life and I internalized it as my “business”, yet the decisions that led us to implode were made in a far off area of the bank unbeknownst to so many of us.  Overnight I became the “number” I always was in someone else’s soap opera.  We take it personally and for us it is personal.  For many it is just business.  

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Last week the NY Times ran an article Bridging the Gap - the Sequel about the failed efforts of Hollywood & Silicon Valley to bridge the cultural divide. It highlighted the movie business and its historical (hysterical?) requirements for cash and not equity, which reminds me of a few movie ventures I have been involved with over the last few months.

“Last year (Daniel Scheinman, a senior vice president atCisco Systems) met with an affluent film producer who marveled at the extraordinary riches afforded to Google executives. Mr. Scheinman told him that most got wealthy accepting stock options instead of million-dollar salaries. When Mr. Scheinman asked whether the producer would ever accept equity instead of cash if they worked together, the moviemaker sniffed.

“I fly a G4,” he told Mr. Scheinman, referring to the Gulfstream jet he owned. “How far do you think my G4 will go on stock options? I need cash.””

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Are influentials guilted into accepting a seeded message or conversation starter for a brand by a friend?  I know that a number of those I have spoken to recently feel that they are being spammed with requests that are not targeted or relevant to that influential blogger or their audience.  And when they do choose to share a message (together with a potentially large number of other influential bloggers), some expressed that they can’t do it regularly as they do not want to be seen as a shill or adding to the noise/spam.   

What about transparency? Honesty? Truth?  Are they truthfully and honestly adding value to their community?  How about when people are asked to favorite a post on Digg, delicious, reddit, stumbleupon and others?  Is that shilling?  What if influencer outreach or SEO/SEM efforts cause so much buzz that they influence sales and a stock price? 

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In Florida and other places, people are watching investments in subprime mortgages perform their own “honey I shrunk the kids” act”.  On today’s news that the State of Florida basically shutdown withdrawals from an investment pool for local governments, And while these funds are considered “the safest” around because they are in may cases overnight plain vanilla simple money market cash funds with limited or no leverage, they have exposure through some of their investments in seemingly unrelated ways.   And while the extensive fund descriptions and other legal documents will say buyer beware, read the find print and past performance is no indicator of future performance, our John Does read ads or see 30 second spots about safety and principal preservation, and after they invest significant amounts - the seemingly unthinkable hits. 

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